Scenario Road Closure Overview and Methodology

Overview

Road Closure Scenarios allow customers to simulate traffic patterns with custom road closures to understand the impact on travel behavior and the network. Unlike traditional models, this fully self-service approach enables rapid, efficient, and iterative forecast planning.

What this unlocks:

  • Identify Traffic Diversion Patterns: Find alternative routes with ease and understand congestion impacts.
  • Estimate Impacts on Daily Travel: Quantify changes in travel volumes, trip distances, mode split, and more.
  • Understand Socio-Economic Impacts: Identify who is most impacted by these closures and how.
  • Assess Environmental Impact: Understand changes in emissions and vehicle miles traveled (VMT).

Key features:

  • Interactive map-based tooling: Easily designate roads for closure, and visualize traffic diversion patterns and changes in travel time for affected routes.
  • Comprehensive analysis: Dynamic charts and visualizations showing forecasted impacts.
  • Collaborate and share: Share insights with your colleagues for review and collaboration.

Road Closure Scenario in Action

The application includes the following components:

  • Network Impacts: Get a detailed overview of the impacts on the closed road. Select individual roadways in the region to better understand the traffic impacts of the road closure.
  • People Impacts: Identify who is most impacted by the road closure and get an understanding of the people living in the study area around the closed road.

Methodology

Replica’s Road Closure Scenario Application is built on the same technical foundation that produces the seasonal data outputs thousands of Replica users depend on every day.

That process involves using a composite of high-quality data inputs, like mobile phone data, connected vehicle data, land use data, and demographic data, plus millions of ground truth data points used for calibration, to create a comprehensive picture of all of the trips that take place in a specific area at a given time.

To run a road closure scenario, Replica customers use our online platform to select the geography of interest, choose the portion of the road network they would like to close, and click submit.

With this information, Replica resimulates all trips in the chosen geography, while removing the ability for any trips to utilize the closed portion of the network. Using Replica’s proprietary traffic assignment methodology, all trips that utilized the closed portion of the network are rerouted, under the assumption each traveler will complete the same activities (i.e., visit the same location). The simulation includes the possibility that a traveler may opt for a different mode (e.g., public transit) in response to the changes.

Because all trips are re-simulated, including commercial freight trips, not just those that used the closed section of roadway, all travelers and the entire traffic pattern will be responsive to the impacts of the closure, and may be spurred to change mode or route.

Customers will receive access to the Scenario app 1-2 weeks after submitting. Users will have the opportunity to drill into any specific network link or geography to see a list of key metrics related to the impact of the closed road on the selected area.

For more detailed information on Replica Scenario capabilities, view our Extended Scenario Methodology.